For movie fans, home video looks a lot different than it did in the late 1990s. Back then, DVDs were the hot thing, and the format quickly proved itself to be affordable, high-quality, and idiot-proof.
But as the last month of 2010 begins, video looks dramatically different. We see Blu-Ray attempting to supplant standard DVD as the physical delivery medium of choice. Meanwhile, downloads and streaming video are making inroads, both online and via services such as Comcast’s On-Demand. For consumers, it’s tempting to wait out the battles and see what becomes mainstream. DVD is still an incredibly viable choice for many people, since it’s nearly high-def (thanks to anamorphic transfers), cheap, compatible across all discs and players, and after almost 15 years of use, comfortable for everyone.
A format’s user-friendliness is the key ingredient to success. Quality may be the deciding factor for true videophiles, but not for the general public. If a format does not present a truly different, easier alternative for the consumer, the consumer will not embrace it.
A good example is the CD/MP3 and iPod war. CDs were popular for many years, for many of the same reasons as DVD. But MP3s and the iPod managed to decimate this nearly-perfect product because digital music is just plain easier. MP3 files don’t take up any physical space. You can take tons of music anywhere with no bulky CDs or audiotapes. In other words, MP3s and the iPod provide a fundamentally different–easier–alternative…even though there is no discernible quality difference.
So in this light, is Blu-Ray the answer? Blu-Ray got off to a rocky start due to its format war with HD-DVD. Fortunately, that ended when HD-DVD was declared defunct a couple years ago. Statistics show that Blu-Ray is finally making some progress (see our recent post). But while Blu-Ray definitely offers a better-quality, high-definition picture and more interactive extra features, it’s no different to operate than a regular DVD disc.
A few years ago, Jeffrey Katzenberg of Dreamworks stated, “Blu-Ray and HD DVD are a niche business….They’re not going to become the next platform. I think for the general consumer, there is not a big enough delta between the standard DVD in terms of where it is today and the next generation.” He could be right. We posted recently about the little-known dustup between SACD and DVD-Audio:Â the reason these formats didn’t go anywhere is because they were not different enough from regular CD. Consumers didn’t see a good enough reason to switch. It’s not impossible that Blu-Ray could become the “SACD” to standard DVD in the same way.
So what about streaming and downloads? Yes, this method of video delivery would seem to be the “MP3″ counterpart for movies and TV. But remember the basic tenet of success: it needs to be simple. You can’t beat the ease of buying a movie at Best Buy and plopping the disc in your player. A good portion of the population still gets hives when they have to interact with a computer. I give credit to Comcast for its On-Demand system, which is undeniably easy to use–but it does operate via the traditional cable box. When a manufacturer manages to seamlessly connect the computer to the TV, that’s when we might see some changes.
Personally, I’m betting on Apple.
